Ketidakpastian Hasil dari Metode Statistical Downscaling dalam membuat Model Hujan Rerata Wilayah

Authors

  • Tutus Wijaya Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Karlina Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Joko Sujono Universitas Gadjah Mada

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.pengairan.2022.013.02.06

Keywords:

Hujan, Thiessen, Downscaling, Prediksi

Abstract

Perubahan iklim dapat mempengaruhi karakteristik hujan suatu wilayah dan berpengaruh terhadap pengelolaan sumber daya air. Pengelolaan sumber daya air yang mempertimbangkan faktor perubahan iklim membutuhkan data hujan hasil proyeksi model iklim. Hujan rerata wilayah hasil proyeksi iklim pada suatu DAS bisa diperoleh dengan dua pendekatan. Pertama, melakukan downscaling untuk setiap stasiun hujan, kemudian menghitung hujan rerata wilayah (Thiessen A). Kedua, menghitung hujan rerata wilayah, lalu melakukan downscaling (Thiessen B). Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengevaluasi performa dua pendekatan tersebut pada proses kalibrasi dan validasi hujan model iklim dibandingkan dengan hujan observasi. Hasil penelitian ini dapat menjadi dasar dalam melakukan proyeksi hujan masa depan. Proses downscaling dilakukan menggunakan statistical downscaling dengan bantuan software SDSM. Data NCEP Reanalysis digunakan sebagai prediktor dan data hujan observasi digunakan sebagai prediktan. Analisis hujan rerata wilayah dilakukan menggunakan poligon Thiessen. Performa model dinilai menggunakan RMSE dan R. Hasil dari pemodelan data hujan rerata wilayah menunjukkan Thiessen A lebih mendekati data terukur dibandingkan Thiessen B. Hal ini dapat dilihat dari performa pendekatan Thiessen A yang memiliki RMSE lebih kecil dan R lebih besar yaitu 10,05 mm dan 0,27, sedangkan Thiessen B sebesar 10,87 mm dan 0,23.

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Published

2022-11-24

How to Cite

Wijaya, T., Karlina, & Sujono, J. (2022). Ketidakpastian Hasil dari Metode Statistical Downscaling dalam membuat Model Hujan Rerata Wilayah. Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering, 13(2), 195–205. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.pengairan.2022.013.02.06

Issue

Vol. 13 No. 2 (2022)

Section

Articles

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