ANALISA PERAMALAN DEBIT SUNGAI MENGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA (AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVARAGE) DI SUNGAI BRANTAS HULU
Abstract
Abstrak: Debit sungai sangat dipengaruhi oleh hujan, sehingga memiliki pola yang dapat diteliti intensitasnya. Studi ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui akurasi metode peramalan debit ARIMA yang nantinya dapat digunakan sebagai pedoman penyusunan pola operasi waduk khususnya waduk Sengguruh.
Data yang digunakan adalah data debit selama 10 tahun dan data tahun terakhir (2011) dipergunakan sebagai pembanding. Peramalan dilakukan juga di titik pengukuran debit (Stasiun AWLR) Gadang dan Tawangrejeni guna mengetahui penerapan metode ARIMA tersebut untuk stasiun debit dalam satu skema sungai.
Akurasi terbaik dalam peralaman debit sungai didapatkan pada peramalan Inflow Waduk Sengguruh dengan nilai MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) 14,47% dan nilai KR (Kesalahan Relatif) 1,41% dari akumulasi volume tampungan.
Hasil analisa pola operasi Waduk Sengguruh diketahui bahwa debit aktual maupun ramalan tidak dapat memenuhi kebutuhan energi selama 1 tahun pada tahun 2011, dan hasil peramalan maupun aktual tidak memiliki selisih yang signifikan terhadap produksi energi PLTA. Hal ini membuktikan bahwa metode peramalan dengan menggunakan ARIMA baik untuk digunakan.
Kata Kunci: Peramalan debit, Pola Musiman, Pola Operasi, Waduk Sengguruh
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Abstract: Streamflow is greatly influenced by rain, so it has a pattern that can be observed for its intensity. This study was conducted to determine the accuracy of forecasting discharge by ARIMA methods that can be used as guidelines for the preparation of reservoir operation pattern especially in Sengguruh reservoir.
The data used is the flow for 10 years and last year's data (2011) is used as a comparison. Forecasting is also doing at the point of discharge measurements (AWLR Station) Gadang and Tawangrejeni to determine the application of the ARIMA method for discharge station in the river scheme.
The best accuracy in forecasting streamflow obtained on Reservoir Inflow Sengguruh with MAPE value (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) 14.47% and the value of KR (Relative Error) 1,41% of the accumulated volume of the storage.
Results of analysis of the pattern of Sengguruh reservoir operation reveals that actual and forecast discharge can not meet the energy needs for one year in 2011, and the actual results of forecasting are not have a significant difference to the energy production of hydropower. This proves that the using ARIMA forecasting method is good for application.
Keywords: Forecasting Discharge, Seasonal Flow Pattern, Pattern of Reservoir Operation, Sengguruh Reservoir.
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